Monday, February 10, 2020

'Pandemic' :: COVID-19

As I grimly watch the novel coronavirus hold Chinese cities in its grip and spark global panic, it's an eerie parallel that matches my recently binged Netllix six-part docuseries 'Pandemic'. The network debuted the show on January 22, at such an ironic timing, but I suppose it's good for viewership ratings. Executive producers of the docuseries Jeremiah Crowell (also showrunner) and Sherri Fink pointed out that in an event like this, there's always the struggle of fear and trust between officials and the general public. I certainly see that happening. 'Pandemic' isn't scaremongering.

[The novel coronavirus has many names, of which the most tactful is '2019-nCoV'. On 11 February, the World Health Organization officially named novel coronavirus as 'COVID-19'.]

The virus has meandered far beyond China, the epicenter Wuhan city and the entire Hubei province. Temperature checks at various venues won't catch those who're infected and contagious but asymptomatic. Airport screenings for origin cities of travel can control the spread somewhat, and add to the information pool in case of new infections. From all statistics, it's highly transmissible, and what the governments are doing, can only slow the spread till more studies are done, let the labs keep up with processing samples, allow the frontline medical workers to breathe a little, and virologists find success in creating effective courses of treatment and clinical trials, and ultimately, vaccines.



We have the conspiracy theorists out in full force. It certainly didn't help that the epicenter of the outbreak, Wuhan, is also home to a 'Cellular Level Biosafety Level 4' facility- the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory, along with its world-class Wuhan Institute of Virology that also specializes in researching coronaviruses transmitted by bats. Xenophobes, racists and extremists are having a field day 'keeping out the Chinese' in every way imaginable. Stephen McCarty's comment in SCMP, 'Pandemic: Netflix docuseries about threat of global outbreak and its eerily prescient timing' published on February 2, 2020, summed up many viewers' thoughts.

But perhaps the worst expression of complacency is that of the conspiracy theorists calling the latest coronavirus nothing more than a Netflix PR stunt for Pandemic. Has the human gene pool ever been shallower?

This COVID-19 is spreading at the most opportune time of the 'mass migration' of Lunar New Year. Hence the Chinese government has taken unprecedented steps in enacting air travel restrictions and locking down cities, and millions of people. Regardless of how aggressive Chinese government tactics have been applied to contain the novel coronavirus, it refuses to be contained. Currently, the five million Wuhan residents who have left the city before the restrictions set in are out and about in the world, and the ill and the dead are from this group. One can hope that as winter ends, the coronaviruses also lose their virulence. (Obviously this doesn't work for Singapore.) Then we'll worry about it next fall. In The New York Times on February 2, 2020, Donald G. McNeil Jr. looked at the developments since December in his piece, 'Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say'.

The 1918 “Spanish flu” killed only about 2.5 percent of its victims — but because it infected so many people and medical care was much cruder then, 20 million to 50 million died. 
By contrast, the highly transmissible H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic of 2009 killed about 285,000, fewer than seasonal flu normally does, and had a relatively low fatality rate, estimated at .02 percent.   
The mortality rate for known cases of the Wuhan coronavirus has been running about 2 percent, although that is likely to drop as more tests are done and more mild cases are found.

I'm stunned by how kiasu and kiasi my fellow city dwellers are. The surgical masks, N95 masks, antibacterial wipes, hand sanitizers, isopropyl alcohol, etc were all out of stock everywhere. Plus the hoarding and panic-buying going on at supermarkets when we got to DORSCON Orange. Wow. Never mind the mutterings that the mainlanders bought up stocks to send to China. It's understandable. But don't our Singapore residents keep stock of all these at home? I didn't rush out to buy because at any one time, my cupboards have a 3-month supply of N95 masks (annual haze, yo), surgical masks (I wear them when I'm ill), cleaning agents (Clorox-everything, Dettol solutions, pet-friendly washes), antiseptic solutions and anti-bacterial wipes (because, dog)You know I believe in the zombie apocalypse right? I've always been fussy about keeping up with cleanliness and personal hygiene, and with a dog, I'm even more particular about it now. 

We can minimize risk of infection by keeping up with reasonably stringent personal hygiene. We don't have that much control over antibodies or our level of immunity at any one time. Who knows when we will fall ill from the common coronavirus that induces influenza? If we're weak and have pre-existing medical conditions, we're susceptible to pneumonia and bronchitis any time. I think most of us are just glad that the novel coronavirus doesn't belong to the lethal genus of ebolavirus. And may it hopefully not mutate. 

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